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Economic Projections

One of the services that we offer at Econometría Consultants is projections on principle macroeconomic variables and an analysis of the economic situation in Colombia. This service is offered in conjunction with organizations in twelve Latin American countries which form part of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultancies – LAECO.
LAECO presents a monthly summary of the economic and political situation in each country, as well as providing a service of sectoral studies on a local and regional level. The following are a selection of economic analyses carried out by the organization.

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enero 11, 2024
2024: the year of painless disinflation
diciembre 7, 2023
News about Minimum wage and health reform
noviembre 9, 2023
Government in knock-out after regional elections
octubre 6, 2023
Slowdown and inflation strengthen the opposition
septiembre 7, 2023
Colombia might be reclassified as a frontier market
agosto 3, 2023
The slowdown weakens the government
julio 6, 2023
The economy is getting colder
junio 2, 2023
Colombia’s economy is cooling down
mayo 5, 2023
The government coalition broke
abril 7, 2023
Will interest rates come down soon? No
marzo 3, 2023
Is the next global recession comming?
febrero 3, 2023
The slowdown has already begun
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January 2024 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: 2024, the year of painless disinflation.

2023 was not a good year. The economy will barely grow by 1%, inflation closed at 9.2% and the labour market shows signs of slowing down. The year 2024 is likely to be a year we will remember more fondly. In fact, if things go well, it will be the year in which Colombia will overcome the inflationary outbreak without major social costs.

April 2021 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Devaluation and revaluation expected for 2021

The exchange rate projections for 2021 of the LAECO Alliance countries are diverse, varying in estimates of revaluation of the Chilean peso, the Colombian peso and the Peruvian sol, to estimates of devaluation in other currencies such as the Brazilian real, the Mexican peso and the Costa Rican colon.

July 2020 - Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultancies LAECO: Growth recovery for 2021

According to the LAECO Alliance countries, the average of the growth forecasts in Latin America in 2020 is -9.6%, and -7.4% excluding Venezuela. The economies are expected to recover in 2021, forecasting an average growth for that year of 3.5% and 4.1% excluding Venezuela.

August 2020 - Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Colombia slightly above the average for Latin America

The economic growth forecasts of the LAECO Alliance countries project an expected growth of -9.14% for the countries of the region in 2020. Colombia is slightly above this average, with a forecast of -7%.

September 2020 - Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Prices going down

The countries of the LAECO Alliance project an average inflation of 1.40% for 2020, a figure lower than the 2.58% presented in 2019. The COVID-19 crisis will also be reflected in prices, although the figures are expected to increase again from 2021.

October 2020 - Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Lower devaluation

The LAECO Alliance countries project a lower devaluation of their currencies for 2021, compared to the one presented in 2020. This trend is expected to continue in 2022 in most countries, except for Argentina where an increase in devaluation is forecast for the Argentinean Peso in that year.

November 2020 - Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Expected growth of -9.6% for the region

The LAECO Alliance countries project, on average, a 9.6% production contraction for 2020. The biggest drop is expected in Venezuela, Argentina and Peru, while the most optimistic forecasts are in Paraguay and Uruguay.

December 2020 - Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: V recovery expected by 2021

The countries of the LAECO Alliance project an economic growth recovery of the region in a V-shape, since the -9.31% expected in 2020, it expected to be replaced by a positive 3.8% in 2021. If these projections are met, all Latin American countries would present growth of more than 2.5% next year, with the exception of Venezuela where, although growth is expected to be negative, an economic recovery is foreseen.

January 2021 - Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: What is expected for the exchange rate of Latin American currencies in 2021?

The LAECO Alliance countries estimate a devaluation of their currencies with respect to the US dollar of 6.83% on average during 2021. However, estimates vary. While in countries such as Argentina devaluations close to 50% are expected, in Colombia a revaluation of 12% of the Colombian peso is estimated compared to the exchange rate values ​​presented in 2020.

February 2021 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: What are the growth expectations in Venezuela this year?

Ecoanalítica, a member of the LAECO Alliance, estimates a decrease of -1,9% of the Venezuelan economy for 2021 and an increase of 5.8% for 2022. These are positive expectations, considering the GDP contraction of 39.8 % and 34.5% presented in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

March 2021 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Will GDP grow more than inflation in Latin America in 2021?

Most of the countries of the LAECO Alliance estimate similar levels of GDP growth and inflation in 2021. In countries such as Uruguay, inflation is estimated to be much higher than economic growth, while in Peru the relationship is inverse.

May 2021 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Positive forecasts for Colombia in 2021

Despite the economic and political shocks presented in the first quarter of the year, an improvement in the economic growth of the Colombian economy is expected for 2021 and a lower devaluation of the peso compared to 2020. However, this behavior will be accompanied by an increase in inflation.

May 2020 - Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Projections of the effect of the COVID-19 crisis on the economies

The LAECO Alliance publishes its forecasts for growth, inflation, unemployment and other macroeconomic variables of the Latin American economies for the month of May 2020. A significant contraction is forecast in all countries due to the crisis generated by COVID- 19, which in some economies is accentuated by the decrease in oil prices and other commodities. For the Colombian case, Econometrics Consultants forecasts a GDP variation of -3.0% for this year. To obtain more information about this analysis, request your subscription to the LAECO Monthly Bulletin.

June 2021 - Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Positive forecasts for Colombia in 2021

The Colombian economy recovered in the first quarter of the year, contradicting forecasts from different economic analysts. Considering this positive trend, Econometría Consultores has adjusted its economic growth projection to levels over 6% by the end of this year.

July 2021 - Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Devaluation expectations for 2022

In most Latin American countries, a reduction in the value of the local currency is expected by 2022, except for Colombia and Chile, where a lower devaluation is projected next year.

September 2021 – Situation report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Inflation projections for 2021

In most Latin American countries, 2021 inflation forecasts have been updated upwards due to exchange rate pressures and a rise on food inflation.

October 2021 – Situation report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Better growth expectations in the region

Our current forecasts in LAECO for GDP growth in the main economies of the region in 2021 (in parentheses the forecast in September):
AR 7.5 (7.2)
BR 5.0 (5.0)
CL 11.2 (9.9)
CO 9.9 (8.2)
MX 5.6 (5.6)
EP 11 (11)

November 2021 – Situation report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Inflation on the rise

Just as in past months, growth forecasts for 2021 were increased for most countries in the region. Inflation forecasts have also increased for both 2021 and 2022. This is due to supply chain bottlenecks, a steeper devaluation and a pick-up in economic growth.

December 2021 – Situation report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: A good 2021 and a challenging 2021

The Colombian economy will end 2021 with a good performance and 2022 will be a good year, although there are relevant risks. Inflation continues to rise and will generate further interest rate increases. The unemployment rate remains above the pre-pandemic level. Despite this, the economy is expected to grow by about 5% in 2022. 

January 2022 – Situation report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Inflation and political uncertainty

2021 inflation reached 5.6%, well above the inflation target, which will force Banco de la República to raise the monetary policy interest rate.The political context is uncertain and Colombia faces risks of extremes like in Chile and Perú that could harm the future of the economy. 

February 2022 – Situation report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Base effects growth

DANE revealed that 2021 GDP growth was 10.6%. If the economy stagnates at 2021Q4 GDP levels for all 2022, 2022 GDP growth would be around 5.3%. Thus, we updated our GDP growth forecast to 6.3%, which is similar to a 3% GDP in normal times. This growth rate might be insufficient for job creation.

March 2022 – Situation report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: When it rains, it pours

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will put further pressure on food and energy prices, as both countries are major exporters of corn, wheat and fertilisers such as urea, and in the case of Russia, blockades on its oil exports increase oil prices.

In Colombia, electoral uncertainty is increasingly relevant as left-wing options seem to be gaining strength. For the moment, congressional and senate elections suggest that no party will have majorities without alliances. However, the results of the new count are awaited.

June 2020 – Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultancies LAECO: Growth projections for 2020

The LAECO Alliance adjusts its forecasts for growth, inflation, unemployment and other macroeconomic variables of the Latin American economies for 2020. A sharp drop in the economic growth of the countries is expected, which varies between -0, 6% forecast for Paraguay, and -27.5% forecast for Venezuela.

April 2020 - COVID-2019 LAECO special report

The Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants – LAECO, presents a special report on the situation of COVID-19 in Latin America and the responses that governments have given to face the crisis.

December 2023 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: News about Minimum wage and health reform.

The results of the regional elections are expected to be reflected in the government’s decision on the minimum wage, which, if it ends up being closer to the employers’ demands, would be interpreted as a deradicalization of the government. However, the government is not as weak as it is believed to be since the health care reform managed to pass in Congress and the labor reform has resurfaced.

February 2023 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: The slowdown has already begun.

In 2022, the Colombian economy grew by 7.5%. Although the number is high compared to the region, it compares negatively to the market’s expectation (8%), which is similar to Econometría’s expectation. Thus, this suggests the beginning of the economic slowdown. Therefore, the 2023 growth forecast is updated to 0.5% with a downward bias. Regarding inflation, the year-end inflation forecast is increased to 9%.

November 2023 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Government in knock-out after regional elections.

In the last quarter of 2023, a year-on-year growth of -0.3%, consistent with a growth of 1% for the whole year, and confirming the slowdown announced in previous months. On the political front, as polls indicated, there was a “punishment vote” in most of the country’s main departments and provinces. The latter is perceived as a significant blow to the government and the Historical Pact party. The effects of these electoral results have had an impact on the legislature.

October 2023 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Slowdown and inflation strengthen the opposition.

Economic activity data show a significant slowdown, which has been accompanied by a sustained reduction in inflation, which could lead to interest rate cuts. This complex economic scenario strengthens the opposition, who could win in the main cities in the 29 October elections.

September 2023 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Colombia might be reclassified as a frontier market.

As the economy continues to slow, JP Morgan suggests that the Colombian stock market is too small to be considered emerging and could be reclassified as a frontier market. This may be of concern in the medium term. On the political front, the punishment vote remains the baseline scenario for the October elections.

August 2023 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: The slowdown weakens the government.

The latest GDP data, presented by DANE confirms the deceleration announced in previous reports. The economy grew by 0.3% annually in the second quarter of 2023 and had a quarter-on-quarter drop of 1%. On the other hand, regional electoral contests have already started, and polls suggest a punishment vote to the government.

July 2023 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: The economy is getting colder.

The Colombian economy continues to show signs of cooling. The labor market shows a lower level of employment, which is to be expected after the central bank’s increase in interest rates. The trade balance also shows an improvement, mainly driven by lower imports.

June 2023 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Colombia’s economy is cooling down.

The Colombian economy is finally showing signs of cooling. On the one hand, inflation decreased two months in a row and significantly. Additionally, the unemployment rate increased in April, both due to higher labor participation and lower employment. If this data is indicative of the coming months, it would confirm the entry into the cooling phase of the economy and possibly weak economic activity figures.

May 2023 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: The government coalition broke.

In the last month the government had an important change in its cabinet since the departure of

José Antonio Ocampo (Ministry of Finance), Cecilia López (Ministry of Agriculture), and Carolina Corcho (Ministry of Health), among other ministers, and Carolina Corcho (Ministry of Health), among other ministers. In this way, the government cracked the government coalition. Corcho). The replacement of José Antonio Ocampo is Ricardo Bonilla, who retains certain positions of José Antonio Ocampo, and, in others, is even more orthodox than José Antonio Ocampo.

April 2023 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Will interest rates come down soon? No

Colombia is facing a complex stagflation scenario. Inflation rose to 13.3% in March (y-o-y) and shows signs of remaining above double digits at least until the end of the year. Looking at the disaggregated data, we see a slowdown in food inflation. However, the other components continue to rise, which makes it very difficult for Banco de la República to contemplate a decrease in the interest rate.

March 2023 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Is the next global recession comming?

The first warning sign was the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. Although this bank is not systemic, it is of great importance for the technology and startup sector and can generate contagion effects. Such contagion effects have been seen at Credit Suisse Bank, which is systemic. Thus, the potential failure of Credit Suisse could be the beginning of a new Lehman Brothers, which was the catalyst for the 2008 crisis.

January 2023 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: 2023: Less GDP growth and higher inflation.

2023 starts with downward updates on several indicators. Monetary policy is already significantly affecting household consumption. As far as inflation is concerned, we have no major change in our expectation. We continue to see inflation closing 2023 at 7 to 8%. However, there are some upside risks from the exchange rate.

March 2020 - Fall in oil prices and the global effects of the Coronavirus

Colombia has been affected by the drop in oil prices and the global effects of the Coronavirus on demand, which has affected the trade balance, the fiscal balance, the exchange rate and inflation. At the moment, the forecasts of the previous month are maintained because there have not yet been any signs that suggest that the epidemiological situation in Colombia is difficult to manage and quarantines are required.

December 2022 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: 2022 is cooling off.

While 2022 will close with 12.7% inflation and possibly grow between 8 and 8.5%, 2023 will be a complex year. On the one hand, the effects of the Banco de la Republica’s monetary policy are already cooling household consumption, which dropped 2.2% in the third quarter of 2022, which is similar to the drop seen in the last quarter of 1998 (2.4%), marking the beginning of the crisis at the end of the century. The growth forecast for 2023 is 2% with downward risks.

November 2022 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: Fiscal and trade deficits are at unsustainable levels.

Fundamental variables such as Colombia’s current account deficit and fiscal deficit are at unsustainable levels, making Colombia more vulnerable to the actions of the Federal Reserve. As a result, Colombia is one of the countries with the highest devaluation associated with interest rate increases in the United States. To this cocktail is added the timidity of the Central Bank in raising interest rates. The political situation in Colombia generates even more uncertainty.

October 2022 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: A black cloud is rising in the sky, a strong storm is coming.

Although 2022 seems to be a good year in terms of growth, with the latest available information it is credible that Colombia will have a growth between 8-8.5% in 2022, this indicator has as a counterpart an inflation between 12-13%. The monetary tightening that the different central banks are doing will surely make financial conditions tighter and generate a complex 2023.

September 2022 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: The temperature rises and rises, the temperature rises.

Even though Banco de la República has raised the monetary policy rate to 9%, it does not appear that the real economy is slowing down. On the contrary, the economy continues to outperform market growth expectations. The dollar has continued its devaluation and is hovering around 4400 COP/USD.

On the political front, Gustavo Petro’s government faced its first march. It was an event without disturbances and not very cohesive, but larger than expected. 

August 2022 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: The recently elected government begins with a tax reform proposal.

In Colombia, the first presidential term of the left has just begun. This has generated expectations among investors and uncertainty about what will happen in the next 4 years. The government has also shown economic orthodoxy by presenting a tax reform in order to increase revenue. While this tax reform has a high component on personal income and the elimination of exemptions for certain business sectors that is unattractive to investors, such an effort suggests the priority of closing the fiscal deficit generated by the COVID-19 crisis and the search for responsible financing of public spending in the following years.

July 2022 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: The world in recession, Colombia overheated

The last few weeks have been characterized by high uncertainty. On the one hand, countries such as the United States and Japan show signs of recession. The greater global risk generates a greater flow of capital towards safer assets than the Colombian currency, such as the dollar and gold, devaluing our currency. Additionally, the election of President Gustavo Petro (leftist candidate) has had an impact on a greater perception of country risk, fueling the devaluation and increases in TES yields and falls in Ecopetrol shares.

June 2022 – Situation Report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: A step to the left.

On June 19, Colombians elected Gustavo Petro as their president for 2022-2026. This is a relevant change for the country. First, he is the first leftist president who generates uncertainty. However, moderation of his policies is expected since he does not have majorities in Congress, and he made many alliances with the political center during his campaign.

On the other hand, the economy has shown important signs of recovery, which is why the growth forecast is updated to 8.5% for 2022.

December 2019 – The Colombian economy

Although the Colombian economy continues to show high growth compared to other economies in the region, it has imbalances in the fiscal and current account deficits that make it unlikely that it will increase public spending. On the other hand, in monetary policy there is also no room to apply expansionary policies, since inflation would close the year close to the target range (3.9%). Econometrics Consultants reduces the forecast for economic growth from 3.2% to 3.1% in 2019 and increases the forecast for the unemployment rate from 10.6% to 10.8%.

January 2020 – Factors that could slow down the growth of the world economy

The Colombian economy will end 2019 with economic growth close to 3.1%. Inflation closed at 3.8% and it is estimated that the unemployment rate was above 10%. In this context, the projections of Econometrics Consultants for 2020 are similar. In particular, global demand will have a slight boost in 2020, but factors such as Brexit, the conflict between the United States and Iran, the impeachment of Donald Trump, among others, could slow down the growth of the world economy.

February 2020 – The volatility of the markets continues due to the coronavirus

Although the uncertainty generated by Brexit and the impeachment of Donald Trump has ceased, the volatility of the markets continues thanks to the coronavirus, devaluing the Colombian currency. In this way, if this trend continues, our central scenario of an average exchange rate around 3,300 COP/USD during 2020 could be modified. On the other hand, there are reasons for relief in the Colombian economy as inflation slowed to 3.6% (year-on-year) and growth in 2019 was 3.3%.

April 2022 – Situation report of the Latin American Alliance of Economic Consultants: An overheated economy?

As predicted in previous months, inflation has continued to rise. As of March, monthly inflation was 1%, and annual inflation reached 8.5%. In response, Banco de la República raised its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points at its March meeting.  On the positive side, the labor market is recovering.

Katherinne Alvarado
Fieldwork Manager
Katherinne Alvarado Acevedo is an Industrial Engineer, with experience in management and coordination of quantitative data collection, she is linked to Econometría since 2019 and has participated in more than 12 consultancies with the firm. Her areas of interest are mainly: Social inclusion, logistics, health, public policy, territorial, urban and rural development, among others.
Katherinne Alvarado
Fieldwork Manager
Katherinne Alvarado Acevedo is an Industrial Engineer, with experience in management and coordination of quantitative data collection, she is linked to Econometría since 2019 and has participated in more than 12 consultancies with the firm. Her areas of interest are mainly: Social inclusion, logistics, health, public policy, territorial, urban and rural development, among others.
Katherinne Alvarado
Líder Trabajo de Campo
Katherinne Alvarado Acevedo es Ingeniera Industrial, con experiencia en gestión y coordinación de recolección de datos cuantitativos, se encuentra vinculada a Econometría desde el 2019 y ha participado en más de 12 consultorías con la firma. Sus áreas de interés son principalmente: Inclusión social, logística, salud, políticas públicas, desarrollo territorial, urbano y rural, entre otros.
Katherinne Alvarado
Líder Trabajo de Campo
Katherinne Alvarado Acevedo es Ingeniera Industrial, con experiencia en gestión y coordinación de recolección de datos cuantitativos, se encuentra vinculada a Econometría desde el 2019 y ha participado en más de 12 consultorías con la firma. Sus áreas de interés son principalmente: Inclusión social, logística, salud, políticas públicas, desarrollo territorial, urbano y rural, entre otros.